TikTok Ban Looms: Prepare for the January 19th Deadline

A TikTok Ban Looms

Barring an eleventh hour sale, a U.S. ban on TikTok will go into effect this Sunday, January 19th. To help you make sense of the news and prepare for what's to come, we've gathered a roundup of the most important information that brands and marketers need to know right now. In this article, we'll brief you on the scenarios most likely to unfold in the coming days and weeks, map out key implications for content creators and brands alike, and share how we're approaching the situation with clients across the New Engen portfolio.

Scenarios Post-Ban: What Happens Now?

Because of the many factors and stakeholders at play, no outcome is guaranteed. With that caveat in mind, these are the scenarios that experts and analysts will be watching for over the weekend and in the days to come.

When the ban takes effect on January 19th:

• Scenario 1: Users lose access to TikTok, the platform is removed from app stores, and ads are turned off.
• Scenario 2: Users retain access, but no further updates are deployed and platform quality deteriorates over time.
• Scenario 3: The Biden Administration throws a Hail Mary and is able to prevent the app from going dark on Sunday.

In the months to come:

• Scenario 1: TikTok is able to secure a 90-day extension with evidence of progress being made toward a sale, pushing the deadline to April 19th.
  • 📣 This is the scenario that New Engen leaders believe to be the most likely. In a recent conversation with Adweek, New Engen CEO Justin Hayashi shared, "TikTok's significant U.S. investment, growing presence, and role in the digital economy make a permanent ban unlikely."
  • That being said, the incoming Trump Administration is a wildcard here, and there are already whisperings of an executive order that have the potential to shake things up.
• Scenario 2: ByteDance refuses to sell and TikTok is banned in the U.S.
  • Many analysts believe that there is no hope for a sale given a host of political and economic reasons.
• Scenario 3: U.S. Senator Ed Markey is successful in his campaign to secure a 270-day extension and pushes the deadline to October 15th.

What the Ban Means for Content Creators

Content creators are the lifeblood of TikTok, and as such, they face major headwinds in the aftermath of a ban. First and foremost, many creators rely on TikTok as a vital source of income. For these creators, and particularly those who depend exclusively on TikTok-generated revenue, the fallout from lost brand partnerships and audience engagement poses a very real threat to livelihood.Creators will miss TikTok's powerful algorithm, which makes it the go-to platform for audience expansion and content innovation. TikTok has fueled reach and been a hub for trends and creative experimentation, from viral challenges to unique editing styles and short-form storytelling. As creators turn to or increase their presence in places like Reels, they will also be tasked with finding new and creative ways to drive innovation.

What we're watching for 👀 In a recent Digiday article, Kelly Dye, VP of Influencer Strategy at Acorn, New Engen's creator solution, calls out the recent surge of new users on Chinese social media platform RedNote. Plus, she notes an upswell of creators who are instructing their followers to deactivate Facebook and Instagram as a way to protest the TikTok Ban.

What the Ban Means for Brands

Impact will vary from brand to brand, depending on levels of investment, audience strategy, and media mix. At New Engen, we're working closely with clients across our diverse brand portfolio to ensure a smooth, strategic path forward - regardless of how the situation unfolds. Here's what New Engen leaders and media teams are prioritizing in both the near and short term:

1. This weekend, monitor spend closely. If TikTok goes dark on Sunday the 19th, make sure that your ads are no longer spending. Then check again on Monday. If the app goes live again, be sure your ads are re-enabled if intended.
   1. And, in the event that your ads continue to spend during the shutdown, TikTok has committed to refunding advertisers who have been charged.
2. As next week kicks off, conduct a strategic review of your media mix. Be prepared to redistribute your marketing dollars to the channels that are best aligned with your audiences and business objectives.
3. Re-evaluate your creative approach. Take the necessary steps to rebuild your content pipeline and scale your creator strategy.
4. Identify opportunities on other channels. Ramp existing investments or expand into new channels like Reddit, YouTube Shorts, Snapchat, and Meta.

🔥 The Strategy Team and Audience & Media Planning Council at New Engen built a comprehensive channel matrix tool to inform strategic decision-making around channel expansion and investment. You can request access to the tool here. Please note that we grant access on a case by case basis.

Meta's Content Moderation Update: Complications for Brands

Speaking of Meta, the tech giant made headlines of its own with news that it would be discontinuing third-party fact-checking. In a January 7th press release, Mark Zuckerberg announced that Meta will be transitioning to a Community Notes model (similar to the one used by X) over the coming months. The announcement also revealed that Meta will be lifting restrictions on politically-sensitive topics and taking a "more personalized approach to political content." On top of that, a recent Axios report uncovered major structural changes taking place at Meta - according to an internal new employee memo, the company has terminated its DEI team, eliminating major programs around hiring and supplier-sourcing in the process.So, what does this have to do with TikTok? Between Facebook & Instagram, Meta stands to capture nearly 40% of U.S. advertising spend shifted in the wake of a TikTok Ban. With a new era of Meta on the horizon, brands will need to understand how these changes might impact their presence and strategy on the platform. Only time will tell how exactly Meta's new content moderation policy will play out, but in the meantime, it's crucial to monitor account activity closely and commit to a strategic review of brand safety and values alignment. Kevin Goodwin, VP of Digital Marketing at New Engen, says that, "We don't expect Meta to change to the degree that X has, but there will likely be a perceivable shift in platform experience."

For now, we recommend taking the following steps to insulate your brand against potential impact:

🚫 Ensure blocklists are current and refreshed to include potential at-risk publishers and pages.

💬 Monitor community sentiment in organic and paid comments, and on platforms like Reddit.

💸 Monitor spend across higher-risk placements, like In-Stream Video, Audience Network, and Facebook Reels. And, in cases where investment is already low, it may be worth suppressing budgets if brand concern is high.

Counting Down to a Ban on TikTok

This weekend, Americans will likely get a taste of what a world without TikTok looks like, even if only for a few days. What follows remains to be seen, but we'll be covering major developments to help you navigate the road ahead with greater clarity. Stay in the loop by following us on LinkedIn and subscribing to our newsletter.