TikTok's Future in the U.S.: What Marketers Must Know Before April 5, 2025
Navigating TikTok's Regulatory Crossroads
April 5, 2025, marks the latest checkpoint in TikTok’s long-running regulatory saga. With mounting scrutiny around ownership, data privacy, and national security, advertisers and users once again find themselves gripped with suspense - right? In this article, we'll take stock of where current deliberations stand and explain why we expect TikTok to remain online in the U.S. come April 5th (and how to stay prepared, regardless of the outcome).
Current State of Affairs: Is a TikTok Ban Likely?
Despite renewed headlines, all signs currently point away from a total ban taking effect on April 5. Here's an overview of the latest news:
High-Level Deal in the Works
Vice President JD Vance recently confirmed that the administration expects a “high-level agreement” to be in place by the deadline—one that would establish a distinct U.S.-based TikTok entity and address key national security concerns. Oracle, which already hosts TikTok’s U.S. user data, has emerged as the most likely suitor, thanks to its existing infrastructure and political favor.Further adding to this momentum, President Donald Trump recently confirmed that a deal is expected to be struck before the April 5 deadline, with potential buyers expressing “tremendous interest” in TikTok's U.S. operations. In particular, private equity firm Blackstone is reportedly evaluating an investment in TikTok’s U.S. business, joining forces with ByteDance’s existing non-Chinese investors to bid for the app. While the deal still requires approval from both the U.S. and China, discussions continue to progress, and the situation remains fluid.
Lawmakers Signal Support for Deadline Extension
On the other side of the aisle, Democratic senators are urging the White House to seek formal Congressional approval to extend the TikTok divestiture deadline beyond April 5. While the Trump administration previously postponed enforcement unilaterally, this latest move aims to formalize and extend the window into October, signaling a strong bipartisan appetite to resolve the matter through structured negotiations rather than a sudden shutdown.
TikTok's Strategic PR Response
TikTok isn’t sitting on its hands. In a bid to influence both public and political sentiment, the company has launched a robust PR campaign showcasing its economic value, especially for small businesses and job creation. From Metro ads in Washington, D.C., to full-page print spreads in POLITICO, the platform is working hard to shape the narrative around its continued presence in the U.S. market.
Market Sentiment Shifts
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket—which were once brimming with bets on a TikTok ban—have now gone quiet. The pullback reflects a collective expectation that a deal is far more likely than a shutdown.
The Hidden Risk: Why Marketers Still Need a Plan
Even if a ban is unlikely, this moment still carries risk. U.S.–China relations remain tense, and the complexity of orchestrating an international sale in a compressed timeline can’t be underestimated. The mere perception of instability can have a measurable impact on platform behaviors and advertising costs: TikTok's CPMs plummeted by -80 % YoY in January, while Pinterest saw a +120% spike. Volatility born from months of uncertainty will continue to influence the broader media landscape beyond April 5th.
Our Approach: Agile Marketing Amid Uncertainty
Our approach remains rooted in one core belief: Agility is the antidote to uncertainty. As we work with our clients to navigate these uncharted waters, the key is anticipating multiple outcomes while maximizing TikTok’s near-term value.
Market Trends: What the Data Shows
Despite the sharp decline in TikTok's CPMs, user engagement remains high. In fact, TikTok retained 90% of its traffic during 3-week period in which it was removed from app stores. For brands willing to hold steady, this provided an opportunity to capitalize on low costs and stable user engagement.
TikTok's Value Proposition Remains Strong
Despite advertiser pullback, TikTok continues to dominate cultural relevance and short-form engagement. For many brands in retail, entertainment, and beauty, TikTok isn't just another social platform—it’s where trends start and consumers spend their time.
Strategic Recommendations for Brands
If TikTok is part of your media mix, here are four actions you can take to ensure your brand is ready for the April 5th deadline - and whatever comes next.
1. Monitor Policy Developments Daily
It's crucial to stay actively engaged with the latest news and developments. Keeping a close eye on the latest updates means you’ll be ready to pivot instead of scrambling to catch up.
2. Build a Solid Contingency Plan
Start with the basics:
Where will TikTok dollars go if the platform goes dark?
Who on your team owns the decision-making?
Will you hold spend temporarily or reallocate immediately?
For most New Engen clients, reallocation would likely flow toward YouTube Shorts and Instagram Reels—platforms that continue to show strong engagement and creator momentum.
3. Run Scenario-Based Media Mix Models
Testing out “what if” plans now can protect performance later. We’re modeling shifts in CAC, reach, and ROI if TikTok advertising becomes unavailable.
4. Create Cross-Platform Short-Form Content
Creative agility is key. We’re helping clients build short-form assets designed to flex across TikTok, Reels, and Shorts, so we don't have to reinvent the wheel if a pivot is needed.
Final Thoughts: Stay Nimble, Stay Ready
TikTok is still open for business, and for now, remains a top-performing channel for brands focused on growth and cultural relevance. Even if our expectations are realized and TikTok survives the April 5 deadline, there are too many factors at play to risk inaction. Stay agile, get creative, and implement whatever measures will ensure that your media strategy withstands the shifting tides.
FAQs
Will TikTok be banned in the U.S. on April 5, 2025?
It’s unlikely. A high-level deal to establish a U.S.-owned TikTok entity is in motion.
Should brands pause TikTok advertising right now?
No. The platform still offers strong ROI, and pulling back too soon could mean missed reach and efficiency.
How can I prepare my media plan in case of a TikTok ban?
Develop a scenario plan: identify reallocation channels, set approval processes, and prepare flexible creative.
Is TikTok losing users because of the regulatory pressure?
Not at all. The platform continues to see high usage—even during periods of delisting or media scrutiny.
Why is short-form content important now?
Short-form video is the most effective and transferable format across platforms. It’s essential to cross-platform success.
