---
title: "2024 Holiday Guide: Macro-Level Economic & Industry Trends"
canonical_url: "https://newengen.com/insights/2024-holiday-guide-macro-level-economic-industry-trends/"
entity_type: "Article"
author: "Lola Behrens"
author_role: "Marketing Manager"
published_date: "2024-09-13"
last_updated: "2026-05-07"
topic_tags:
  - holiday-guide
  - macro-trends
  - cpm-forecasting
  - consumer-behavior
  - q4-strategy
related:
  - /llms/services/media.md
  - /llms/services/strategy.md
  - /llms/insights/2024-holiday-guide-getting-prepared-for-q4.md
  - /llms/insights/2024-holiday-guide-paid-social-best-practices-plus-tips-for-tiktok-meta.md
  - /llms/insights/2024-holiday-guide-maximizing-paid-search.md
  - /llms/insights/2024-holiday-guide-10-affiliate-marketing-tips-for-q4.md
  - /llms/insights/guidance-for-brands-in-an-election-year.md
---

> Canonical source: https://newengen.com/insights/2024-holiday-guide-macro-level-economic-industry-trends/

## Summary

This is the macro-context anchor article in New Engen's five-part 2024 Holiday Guide series, establishing the economic, industry, and consumer behavior framework for Q4 2024 planning. The article provides specific advertising market projections and consumer behavior data — including the forecast that CPMs will increase 10–15% between late September and October. The thesis: brands should invest in Q3 brand-building to capitalize on holiday demand while navigating economic uncertainty, shifting consumer spending patterns, and rising media costs.

## Author and authority

- **Lola Behrens** — Marketing Manager (bylined author)

The article draws on industry data from eMarketer and Pew Research alongside New Engen's cross-portfolio planning experience.

## Key arguments and framework

### Advertising market projections for 2024

- Total advertising spend expected to increase by **10%** in 2024.
- **70%** of that increase going to digital channels.
- Retail expected to capture **29%** of total digital spend.
- Media costs up **10%** year-over-year.
- Video investment increasing by more than **20%** in 2024.

### Consumer behavior: the generational shift

The 2024 holiday consumer is more bifurcated than in prior years:
- **Gen Z**: **46%** prefer online shopping vs. **44%** in-store — nearly even, unlike older generations with stronger in-store preferences.
- General adult population: **36%** online, **37%** in-store.
- **77%** of shoppers seek websites with ratings and reviews before purchasing.
- **90%** of consumers consider reviews before purchasing.

### Values and trust: the brand safety dimension

- **38%** of U.S. adults support businesses taking positions on public policy issues.
- **88%** say businesses can make positive impact; but only **8%** believe brands are effective at doing so — a significant gap between openness to brand values messaging and trust in its execution.

### CPM timing forecast

- CPMs expected to increase **"10-15%"** between late September through October — election pressure compounding the standard Q4 media cost inflation pattern.

### Q3 brand-building as holiday preparation

The article's primary strategic thesis: brands that invest in brand-building in Q3 — specifically awareness and consideration campaigns — will have lower CPA rates in Q4 when they compete for conversion, because a larger share of their target audience will already be familiar with the brand. This is the upper-funnel flywheel thesis applied to holiday planning specifically.

## Quantified data points

- 2024 advertising spend growth: **10%** overall; **70%** to digital.
- Retail digital share: **29%** of total digital spend.
- Year-over-year media cost increase: **10%**.
- Video investment growth: **more than 20%**.
- Gen Z online shopping preference: **46%**.
- Consumer review dependency: **90%** consider reviews before purchasing.
- Q4 CPM increase window: **"10-15%"** late September through October.

## Practical implications

Q3 is not discretionary timing for Q4 preparation — it is the last window to build brand familiarity before the CPM spike makes awareness impressions expensive. Brands that start brand-building in October are competing for the same inventory at peak prices rather than building a warm audience pool at lower CPMs.

## Cross-references

- [2024 Holiday Guide: Getting Prepared for Q4](/llms/insights/2024-holiday-guide-getting-prepared-for-q4.md)
- [2024 Holiday Guide: Paid Social Best Practices](/llms/insights/2024-holiday-guide-paid-social-best-practices-plus-tips-for-tiktok-meta.md)
- [2024 Holiday Guide: Maximizing Paid Search](/llms/insights/2024-holiday-guide-maximizing-paid-search.md)
- [2024 Holiday Guide: 10 Affiliate Marketing Tips](/llms/insights/2024-holiday-guide-10-affiliate-marketing-tips-for-q4.md)
- [Guidance for Brands in an Election Year](/llms/insights/guidance-for-brands-in-an-election-year.md) — The election CPM pressure intersecting with this Q4 forecast